So you want to know where the Cats will finish in 2025? You’re not alone. Every Geelong fan—from the die-hards at Kardinia Park to those watching from the couch—has a hunch. But a hunch isn’t a prediction. A real forecast takes homework, a bit of footy nous, and a willingness to be proven gloriously wrong.

I’ve put together this checklist to help you build your own 2025 predicted ladder for the Cats. By the time you’re done, you’ll have a solid, defensible take on where Geelong lands in the AFL competition this season. Whether you’re posting in a forum, debating at the pub, or just settling a bet with yourself, this process will get you there.

Let’s dive in.

What You’ll Need Before You Start

Before we get into the steps, gather a few essentials. You don’t need to be a stats guru, but having these handy makes the whole thing easier:

The 2025 AFL fixture for Geelong (check our /fixture-analysis for the full breakdown)
Last season’s ladder and key results (you can find our /2024-season-preview for context)
A rough idea of the Cats’ list changes—who retired, who got drafted, who’s returning from injury
A notepad or a notes app (old-school pen works, too)
A healthy dose of optimism (you’re a Cats fan, so that shouldn’t be hard)

Got it? Good. Let’s build your predicted ladder.

Step 1: Assess the Cats’ Core Strength

Start with the foundation. Geelong doesn’t rebuild; they reload. In 2025, the core remains formidable, even if some familiar faces have moved on. Look at the spine of the team:

Tom Hawkins is still the anchor up forward. Yes, he’s in the twilight of his career, but the Tomahawk remains one of the most dangerous key forwards in the game. His presence alone changes how defenders set up.
Patrick Dangerfield continues to defy age. Even as he shifts into a more forward-half role, Dangerfield’s explosiveness and leadership are irreplaceable. He’s the heartbeat of the midfield when he’s on.
Coach Scott is the constant. Chris Scott has been at the helm for over a decade, and his system—built on contest work, defensive pressure, and smart ball movement—isn’t going anywhere. The Cats’ game plan is proven.

Ask yourself: Does this core look like it can carry the team to a top-four finish? If the answer is yes, you’re already leaning toward a high ladder spot. If you’re skeptical about age catching up, factor that into your projection.

Pro tip: Don’t underestimate the value of continuity. The Cats have one of the lowest turnover rates in the AFL. That chemistry counts for wins, especially in tight games.

Step 2: Evaluate the New Blood and the Draft Haul

No team stays the same forever. The 2024 AFL Draft brought fresh talent to the Cattery, and the Geelong VFL team is a pipeline of developing players who are ready to step up.

Look at who the Cats selected in the national draft. Did they grab a ready-made midfielder? A key defender? A speedy small forward? The draft isn’t just about next year—it’s about the next five. But in 2025, even one or two rookies making an impact can push the team up the ladder.

Also, check the VFL team. Geelong’s reserves have been a breeding ground for late bloomers and mature-age recruits. If a player dominated at that level last season, expect Coach Scott to give them a shot.

Common mistake: Overrating draft picks. A first-rounder is exciting, but most draftees need time. Don’t pencil a rookie in for 20 games unless they’re a genuine standout.

Step 3: Analyze the Fixture—Hard and Soft Patches

This is where your /fixture-analysis comes in. The AFL fixture is never fair, but it’s always revealing. Geelong’s 2025 schedule will have:

Tough stretches: Back-to-back games against top-four contenders, interstate trips, or short breaks.
Soft patches: Runs of games against rebuilding sides or teams with key injuries.
The Kardinia Park factor: The Cats play several games at GMHBA Stadium. That’s a fortress. The Kardinia Park redevelopment has only made the venue more intimidating for visitors. Count those as likely wins.

Map out the season month by month. Where are the danger zones? Where are the easy points? A team that wins 7 of 8 at home but struggles on the road will finish differently than one that travels well.

Example: If the Cats face Brisbane, Collingwood, and Melbourne in three consecutive weeks mid-season, that’s a potential 0-3 skid. But if they follow it with games against bottom-six sides, they can recover.

Pro tip: Look at interstate travel. Geelong historically travels well, but a heavy road schedule in the second half of the season can wear down older legs.

Step 4: Factor in Key Injuries and Returns

Injuries are the great equalizer. In 2024, the Cats had a relatively clean bill of health, which helped them push deep into the AFL Finals Series. But 2025 could be different.

Consider:

Who’s returning from a long-term injury? If a star like Dangerfield or Hawkins misses significant time, that’s a 2-3 game swing.
Who’s entering their prime? Young guns who had breakout 2024 seasons might take another leap. That’s a positive.
Who’s at risk of decline? Older players tend to miss more games. The Cats have an aging list, so durability is a real concern.

Be realistic. Don’t assume everyone plays 22 games. Build in a buffer for a few key absences.

Common mistake: Ignoring soft-tissue injuries. Hamstrings and calves plague older lists. If the Cats have a history of soft-tissue issues, factor that into your prediction.

Step 5: Weigh the Competition—Who’s Rising, Who’s Falling?

The AFL competition doesn’t stand still. While you’re focused on the Cats, the rest of the league is shifting. You need to compare Geelong’s trajectory to:

Rising teams: Brisbane, Collingwood, and GWS are likely to stay strong. But are there dark horses? Teams like Hawthorn or Essendon could leapfrog the Cats if they’ve recruited well.
Falling teams: West Coast, North Melbourne, and Richmond are in rebuild mode. Those are wins on the fixture.
Mid-tier battlers: Teams like St Kilda, Adelaide, and the Bulldogs are inconsistent. The Cats need to beat them consistently to secure a top-four spot.

Your predicted ladder isn’t just about Geelong’s wins—it’s about how those wins stack up against the rest. If the Cats go 16-6 but the top three teams all go 18-4, Geelong finishes fourth.

Pro tip: Look at the Cats’ record against top-eight teams from last season. If they struggled against elite sides, that’s a red flag for 2025.

Step 6: Consider the X-Factors

Every season has wildcards. For Geelong in 2025, these are the ones to watch:

The Joel Selwood effect, post-retirement: The former captain’s leadership is still felt, but his absence on the field is now two years old. The Cats have adjusted, but is the culture as strong without him in the trenches?
The Brownlow Medal buzz: If a Cat like Dangerfield or a younger midfielder gets close to the Brownlow, that usually means the team is winning. Individual awards reflect team success.
The Kardinia Park redevelopment: The stadium upgrade has improved facilities and atmosphere. That could give the Cats a genuine home-ground advantage that’s even stronger than before.
Fixture luck: How many games are at GMHBA Stadium? How many are in prime-time slots? The AFL’s scheduling can subtly favor certain teams.

These X-factors are hard to quantify, but they matter. A team that feels the love from a redeveloped home ground might win an extra game or two.

Common mistake: Overvaluing one X-factor. A stadium upgrade is nice, but it doesn’t replace a star midfielder. Keep these in perspective.

Step 7: Build Your Predicted Ladder

Now, put it all together. Open your notes and sketch out a ladder for the entire AFL competition. For the Cats, assign a win-loss record based on your analysis:

Start with the floor: What’s the worst-case scenario? (e.g., 12-10, missing top four)
Set the ceiling: What’s the best-case? (e.g., 18-4, minor premiership)
Pick your prediction: Somewhere in between, based on your steps above.

Then, slot Geelong into the final ladder. Compare to other teams you’ve assessed. Is 15-7 enough for top four? Or does the competition demand 17-5?

Example prediction: The Cats finish 16-6, landing in third place behind Brisbane and Collingwood, but ahead of a surging GWS. They host a qualifying final at GMHBA Stadium and enter the AFL Finals Series with genuine premiership hopes.

Pro Tips and Common Mistakes

Pro Tips

Use last season as a baseline, not a prophecy. The Cats finished strong in 2024, but every year is different.
Watch the preseason games. They’re not always predictive, but they show how new players fit into the system.
Track the Cats’ form against top-four rivals. If they lose to Brisbane by 10 points in Round 1, that’s a data point. If they get blown out, that’s a warning.
Be honest about aging. The Cats have defied Father Time for years, but it catches everyone eventually. Don’t assume 2025 is the year it doesn’t.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

Overrating home ground advantage. Yes, GMHBA Stadium is a fortress, but the Cats still have to travel to the MCG for big games.
Underrating the draft. A good draft class can inject speed and energy that the older core lacks.
Ignoring the VFL team. Geelong’s reserves are deep. If a VFL player forces their way into the AFL side, that’s a bonus.
Predicting based on hope, not evidence. We all want the Cats to win the flag. But a realistic ladder prediction serves you better than a fantasy one.

Checklist Summary

Here’s your quick-reference checklist for building the Geelong Cats 2025 predicted ladder:

Assess the core strength: Hawkins, Dangerfield, Coach Scott, and the system
Evaluate new talent from the AFL Draft and Geelong VFL
Analyze the 2025 fixture for tough and easy patches
Factor in key injuries and player returns
Weigh the competition: rising and falling teams
Consider X-factors: culture, stadium upgrade, fixture luck
Build your predicted ladder with a realistic win-loss record
Compare to last season’s results and adjust
Watch preseason form for clues
Finalize your prediction and defend it with evidence

There you have it. You’ve got the process, the checklist, and the insight to make a smart, informed prediction about where the Cats will land in 2025. Now go share it—whether in the comments, with your mates, or just as your own personal guide for the season ahead.

And remember: no one gets it exactly right. But getting close? That’s the fun part. For more on the season ahead, check out our /season-previews hub and the /rivalry-reports for the matchups that will define Geelong’s year.

Go Cats.

Geelong Cats 2025 Predicted Ladder: A Season Preview Checklist